The rising prevalence of obesity and diet-related diseases has put ultra-processed foods (UPFs) under scrutiny. As of 2024, nearly 40% of the global adult population is overweight or obese, and diet-related conditions such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes continue to rise. The Nova classification system, introduced in 2009, categorizes foods based on processing levels, from minimally processed (1) to ultra-processed (4). This framework has influenced policy decisions, including Brazil’s dietary guidelines and discussions in the U.S. 2025 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee. However, despite growing research linking UPFs to health risks, the classification system presents challenges that businesses in the food industry must consider.

Health Risks Associated with UPFs

An umbrella review published in 2024 analyzed 14 meta-analyses covering 45 health conditions and found strong associations between UPF consumption and cardiometabolic diseases, common mental disorders, and increased mortality rates. Clinical studies, such as those conducted by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Japan’s Hamano et al., indicate that participants consuming UPFs tend to eat more calories, eat faster, and gain weight. However, these studies also highlight confounding factors, such as variations in food types and nutritional content, making it difficult to attribute health risks solely to processing levels.

Limitations of Current Research

Most epidemiological studies apply Nova classifications retroactively, inferring food categories from limited data rather than direct measurement. Additionally, while some studies show strong correlations between UPFs and health risks, causation has not been conclusively established. A 2023 study (Morales-Berstein et al.) even found an unexpected positive association between UPFs and accidental deaths, underscoring the complexity of dietary influences.

Furthermore, the Nova system groups diverse foods under the same category despite differences in nutritional value. For instance, whole-grain bread from mass production is classified as group 4, while a similar product from an artisanal bakery falls into group 3. Such inconsistencies challenge the reliability of Nova as a tool for guiding consumer choices and industry regulation.

The Need for a More Precise Approach

For food industry professionals, refining the understanding of food processing's impact on health is essential. Researchers like Hess et al. (2024) have developed test menus to compare similar foods with varying processing levels, offering a more controlled approach to studying UPFs. Initial findings suggest that not all UPFs are inherently unhealthy, and dietary quality depends on multiple factors beyond processing alone.

Emerging research from Wageningen University (Teo et al. 2022) suggests that food texture and caloric density play a role in overconsumption, independent of processing level. Advances in food science, such as optimizing food structure for better digestion, could help address some of the concerns linked to UPFs while maintaining their benefits in terms of convenience and affordability.

Implications for the Food Industry

Given the widespread presence of UPFs in the market, businesses must navigate the evolving landscape of food classification and regulation. While reducing excessive consumption of certain UPFs may align with public health goals, blanket restrictions could disrupt supply chains and limit consumer choice. A more nuanced, science-based approach—considering food formulation, nutritional content, and consumer behavior—could provide a more effective framework for future industry practices.

As research on UPFs continues, the food industry must remain proactive in adapting to scientific findings while ensuring food availability, affordability, and quality. Collaborative efforts among food scientists, nutritionists, and policymakers will be key to developing dietary recommendations that balance health concerns with the realities of food production and consumption. Businesses should focus on innovation, transparency, and data-driven strategies to align with both consumer expectations and regulatory developments.